Planning a trip to In-n-Out
I have a friend who is in China trying to expand the business of a major global organization that conducts opinion polls. Not surprisingly, he is finding the effort a bit rough going.
Part of the problem is a question as to whether or not polls are a tool that could work in China, a matter I touched on in my rather wonkish recent piece about market research. Another is the political sensitivity of what the Chinese government calls “social research.” Having an organization not controlled by the government or the party conducting polls among the Chinese people about social and political issues is extremely sensitive. Indeed, until recently such research was supposed to be approved in advance by the National Bureau of Statistics. (I believe this still to be the case, but enforcement is spotty.)
But the other part of the problem is whether traditional polling is even necessary in China anymore. While a poll takes days or weeks to set up, conduct, analyze, and disseminate, China’s social media offers a realtime glimpse at the Chinese zeitgeist that would be adequate for many (if not most) purposes. Indeed, I’ve watched demonstrations of public opinion dashboards based on real-time online analysis, and the process of gathering that data is becoming increasingly automated. Right now, companies in the advertising, marketing, and PR industries are deep into this business, and it is probably only political caution that is keeping Baidu, Sina, and Tencent from openly offering realtime “mood of the public” analysis to anyone willing to pay for it.
The only real question, then, is how long it will take American politicians to replace organizations like Harris, Roper, and Gallup with less expensive, real-time tools? While I suspect polling will never go away, the industry is in for some disruption over the next four years. Election 2016 is bound to be much more about Twitter, Facebook, and Google Analytics than about the old polling organizations. I would bet that at least one, if not all three, of those organizations either launches new, commercial election products in the coming quadrennium, or they buy companies that already have them.
- Polling: a look inside the machinery of public opinion surveys (csmonitor.com)
- China Workers Unsatisfied On The Job, Poll Suggests (forbes.com) A great example of my point above. The poll was conducted by Gallup in China in 2011 and just released this month. Given all of the changes taking place in China, I am betting a lot of the detailed insights in this poll have passed their expiration dates.