“I remain an unabashed bull on China,” said Sorrell. “There are worries about the slowing of growth but that was inevitable. It was natural it was going to slow. We are concerned about the stock market bubble and the fall in the stock markets has implications. Having said that, we still believe in the longer term in the economy. We think it is a short term phenomenon.”
Persuasion trumps coercion. Even in China. The government has a monopoly on force, but it does not retain that monopoly by employing it without consideration of public opinion.
The days of high-handed government action are over, and this makes the government’s task more complex – and delicate – than ever. Power my grow from the barrel of a gun, but the nation’s leadership cannot ignore that it remains rooted in the people.
Urbanizing in place – concept – the idea that China’s urbanization is not being driven entirely by migration from the countryside to the cities, but that large areas that Beijing’s statisticians might once have considered “rural” are now considered “urban.”
In-place urbanization could occur in one of three scenarios.
The physical area of a municipality has been expanded to include what was once surrounding countryside.
In the second scenario, a village that was once considered part of the countryside has now grown into a town that a demographer or statistician would now classify as urban.
In the third scenario, a group of villages in a given area are considered to be conglomerated as a single administrative entity and reclassified as a single town.
In these cases, China’s urbanization is taking place without migration, and presents a different set of policy, marketing, and personal challenges and opportunities than classical migration-based urbanization.
Professor David Shambaugh’s recent essay in the Wall Street Journal suggesting that China’s political system is about to hit some very rough times (“The Coming Chinese Crackup“) has provoked intense debate. Peter Harcher’s article written in response offers a neat summary of what makes Shamgaugh’s conclusions so debatable.
I nevertheless absolutely reject his conclusion which I find astonishingly ill-informed. The pervasive sense of dramatic change is, I have found, combined in almost all Chinese minds with satisfaction and confidence that the change is urgently needed–indeed long overdue—and in the right direction.
It also demonstrates that the American academy has powerful competition as a source of cogent analysis on Chinese politics.
Any serious discussion of China’s future must include non-Academics like economist Arthur Kroeber and Australians like Geremie Barmé of the Australian National University and David Kelly of China Policy in Beijing.
Barmé, for his part, writes off Shambaugh’s collapsism as the view of an American deeply anxious about America. Kroeber, an American himself, argues that the Party remains as strong and adaptable as it was in 2008, when Shambaugh wrote his excellent China’s Communist Party: Atrophy and Adaptation.
My problem with both sides is the determinism implicit in the arguments. The Party’s collapse might not be imminent, but neither is its adaptability without real limits, imposed upon it by important groups and individuals within its own ranks. I find it hard to believe that Barmé and Kroeber would argue that point.
We thus must agree that there may be circumstances under which the Party might prove insufficiently adaptable to avert an existential crisis. And before you protest, let us agree that there may be circumstances under which any polity, however strong and adaptable, might face the same limits. In that case, the answer is neither “the Party will collapse” nor “the Party is too adaptable to collapse.” It is, rather “under what circumstances would the Party face the danger of collapse?”
Like most of us, neither I nor my clients can afford to treat China like its future is a game of roulette: bet on Red, the Party stays in power. Bet on black, and it collapses. Creating strategy in business means contending with all possibilities, balancing them, and coming up with a pathway that appropriately addresses them.
We can be neither Cassandra nor Polyanna. We should not overestimate the considerable challenges Xi Jinping faces as he guides the nation through roiling and uncharted waters, but none of us can afford to underestimate them.
China Entrepreneur Reality Distortion Field – noun – the special power granted to successful Chinese entrepreneurs that allows them to take advantage of selective disclosure, a lack of third-party oversight, a global fascination with the rise of China, and a modest cult of personality to establish an exaggerated perception of their company’s value. See LeTV, Xiaomi, etc.
For a variety of reasons, cross-platform alignment occurs too infrequently. First, marketers have become disorientated, even intimated, by the emergence of quantitative technologies that promise algorithmic salvation. Second, advertising agencies have yet to identify models of collaboration that pair conceptual distillers – that is, “storytellers” — with systemic thinkers, the latter capable of devising innovative transactions. Finally, many organizations have siloed operational structures. This is particularly true in China where sales departments wield control over marketing. To boot, online and offline units function independently.
WaterTech – noun – the discipline combining elements of of biology, agronomy, engineering, environmental science, and electronics to find ways to make more efficient and effective use of limited water resources.
In an upcoming post in The Golden West Review, I suggest that the California drought is really a great big hint from the universe at one of the greatest business opportunities facing both China and the United States. The companies and countries that are able to develop the products, technologies, skills, techniques and services that significantly reduce per-capita water usage will be the winners in the 21st century.
As the steam slowly leaks from the microelectronics and telecommunications revolutions that created Silicon Valley, we need to start looking for the next revolution. WaterTech will no doubt be a major part of that, and Sand Hill Road would be stupid to leave the opportunities to foundations and foreign firms.
My wife’s aunt brought this bottle of wine to a recent family dinner at the Liu Family Restaurant next to the National Art Museum of China (Meishuguan) in Beijing.
Nobody is happier than I to see Chinese vineyards jumping into the wine business. But someone should alert this particular winery that selling a wine without a year on the bottle makes it very hard for all but the utter tyro to trust what is in the bottle.
My most recent paper, this one on addressing the challenges facing fast food franchisors in China, “Jumping China’s Great Food Wall (pdf),” is now up on the Allison+Partners website.
Failing that, you can find the paper on Academia.edu here.
This is more of a practical paper than my last one, giving a quick overview of the uneven success enjoyed by fast food companies in China, and offering a series of prescriptions designed to avoid some of the more serious rocks and shoals, and mitigate the effects of many others.